After week-6 we are roughly 1/3 of the way through the 2024 NFL season, and at this point there are some things that we may be certain of as the season rolls on.
Here are a few things I think will continue to remain true through the rest of the way.
1) Deshaun Watson's career is cratering.
Watson averages 170-yards per game. Bo Nix averages 180-yards per game.
He ranks 31st in the league with a QB rating of 21.7.
He has 5 TD passes and 3 INT's and has been sacked a whopping and league-leading 31 times. How can a guy with the mobility he was thought to have be sacked an average of 5 times a game?
He has a 2024 cap number of $27,942,678 and accounts for 9.8% of the Browns' salary cap. Next season his cap number goes to $72,935,000, which will be 22.7% of the teams cap number.
If the Browns cut him after June 1st 2025 they will have to eat $46-million in dead money towards their 2025 cap number. If they wait until after June 1st 2026 his dead money cap hit would be $0, so I'd expect the Browns will have to keep Watson as the most expensive back-up QB in NFL history through he 2025 season.
He's only 29-years old, but it's unlikely he'll be a starter in the NFL beyond this year.
2) The Carolina Panthers will have the 1st-overall pick in the 2025 draft.
I will predict them to finish with their one win they earned in week-3 when Andy Dalton started and looked like he may bring some hope to their season, but he has since reverted back to the Andy Dalton we'd thought he'd be.
The Panthers roster has a lot of holes that they will need to address in 2025.
There will be several options for a QB at the top of the draft, but the talent level in this one is not expected to be very potent as years past. That's not a promising start to a much needed rebuild.
3) The Patriots will draft an offensive Tackle with their first pick in the 2025 draft.
The Patriots offensive line is the worst group in the NFL.
Everyone seemed to be aware of that going into this season, but the team didn't do much to address the issue in the off-season.
They should have a high draft pick in April and I look for then to select Kelvin Banks Jr. from Texas. He has 32 career starts under his belt, with every single snap coming at left tackle. That's exactly what this team needs.
4) The Jaguars need to fire head coach Doug Pederson.
There's too much talent in Jacksonville for them to be 1-5 with home losses to Cleveland and Chicago.
The defense ranks 31st in the league in yards against and points against.
The offense ranks in the middle of the pack, but there's too much talent across the board for them to be a middling offensive team.
Pederson has a 19-20 record with the Jaguars to this point. It's time to make a change before this team implodes on itself.
5) The Dolphins would be better off to shelf QB Tua Tagovailoa for the rest of the 2024 season.
Tagovailoa is broken. His head is soft due to the numerous concussions and he can't be counted on to lead an NFL team any longer.
The Dolphins would benefit from a losing season this year and a high draft pick in April. They can't move forward with Tua being the guy they entrust to lead this team consistently into the future.
6) Defense is alive and well in the NFL.
You can stack a team with very good offensive talent but it won't mean it's good, even in the era of the leagues press for more scoring.
The Bengals, with Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, Jamar Chase and a good offensive line have the 12th ranked offense in the league, but they have the 23rd ranked defense and have a 2-4 record.
The Steelers have a well below average offensive line and the 26th ranked offense in the league, but have the 8th ranked defense in the league and a 4-2 record.
The Chargers have the 28th ranked offense in the league, but have the 6th ranked defense, good enough for a 3-2 record.
The Chiefs are in the middle of the pack with the 13th ranked offense, but have the 9th ranked defense. Good enough for a 5-0 record.
The bottom line is you can have a very good offense, but it doesn't mean you'll have a successful season if your defense isn't at least decent.
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